Greece ’s international creditors in Europe and Washington estimate that besides the loan of 10-20 billion euros currently under negotiation, the Greek economy will need further financial support in order to stay afloat by 2016.
Troika officials have estimated that Greece’s fiscal deficit for the years 2014 and 2015 will reach the amount of 8 billion euros and 11 billion euros by 2016. Thus, a loan of 20 billion euros would be enough for Greece to meet its financial obligations.
However, troika fears that Greece’s fiscal deficit will be bigger than initially predicted, despite the impressive primary surplus that the Greek government managed to achieve during the last year. Troika predicts that the fiscal gap of the Greek economy could reach and even surpass the amount of 14 billion euros. This estimation is based on the lack of progress in the Greek privatization process and on some judicial decisions that have stalled some of the memorandum’s measures.
More accurate estimations on Greece’s deficit could be made after the double-elections (Greek local elections for the European Parliament). Meanwhile, from May to August the Greek government must to pay 16.8 billion euros in expired Greek bonds. Thus, a new loan of 30 billion euros will be necessary in order for Greece to meet its financial obligations.
Nonetheless, if a new “bailout package” is considered as necessary by both Greece and its lenders, further drastic and strict measures will be asked for in return.