About half of international investors expect Greece to leave the euro zone within the next 12 months, a survey by German research group Sentix showed on Tuesday.
Sentix’s euro zone breakup index for Greece went up to 48.3 percent in April from 35.5 percent that was in March. This means that almost one in two investors is skeptical about Europe’s pledges to keep Athens in the single currency bloc.
“European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about half of all investors,” Sentix said in a statement.
Greece is almost out of cash and has resorted to internal borrowing. Negotiations with international creditors — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — have stalled over the country’s reluctance to move to fiscal reforms.
On the other side, creditors demand certain austerity measures that the Greek government refuses to implement. These include pension cuts and labor market reforms.
“In 2012 (ECB President) Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today?” Sentix said.
The breakup index for the euro zone as a whole shot to 49 percent in April from 36.8 percent in March, driven by the increase in expectations of a Grexit. It was at about the same level as during the peak of the euro zone debt crisis in 2012.
At the same time, Sentix’s index measuring the risk of contagion fell to a record low of 26.1 percent, meaning that investors do not generally expect the Greek debt crisis to spread to other euro zone countries.
The breakup survey covered 1,023 investors and was conducted between April 23-25. It measured the percentage of investors that expect the euro zone to break up.
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