Stratfor Intelligence has released a report which contains a rather pessimistic assessment about the state of affairs in Greece.
The intelligence firm predicts that the month of May will be one of huge challenges for the Greek government as this is when the refugee crisis and the review of the bailout program will reach a critical point.
Basing their assumptions on the belief that Europe’s refugee/migrant crisis is not about to go away any time soon, the authors of the report believe that control borders in the Balkan region will be maintained regardless of what the Brussels technocrats decide. Stratfor report also do not rule out Greece’s isolation from the Schengen area, a development which, according to its authors, will derail the bailout program.
Stratfors’ report also mentions the difficulties facing the Syriza-led government, which are economic, political, and social. The government faces a fiscal gap for 2015 which it must close with additional cuts in 2016 while it faces increasing challenges from inside the Syriza party as well as from the rest of society which is rebelling against Tsipra’s “U-turns” on major issues.
Stratford predicts that negotiations between Greek authorities and the country’s official creditors will resume towards the end of February, but foresees disagreements surfacing with regard to pension reforms and over the ways to close the fiscal gap, which is estimated to be over 1.8 billion euros.
In a report titled “Germany’s Unsettling Plan for Southern Europe,” Stratfor Intelligence also assesses the recent plan submitted by the German Council of Economic Experts which calls for the introduction of bail-in mechanisms and regards the move as Germany’s attempt to ensure that Southern Europe does not become a burden on Germany and Northern Europe as the Eurozone moves closer to a fiscal union and political union.