The International Monetary Fund forecasts a much lower primary surplus for 2017 than the predictions made by the Greek Finance Ministry and the European Commission. In its report, it also called for new measures to achieve these goals. According to its report, the IMF believes that the primary surplus will be at 0.1 percent of the GDP rather than 0.6 percent for this year. For 2017, the IMF believes that Greece will manage to achieve a primary surplus at 0.7 percent of the GDP with the full application of bailout measures, whereas in 2018, the GDP will be at 1.6 percent of the GDP.
The Greek Finance Ministry’s data does not converge with the IMF, as it calculates that the primary surplus will be at 1.8 percent of the GDP for 2017 and at 3.5 percent from 2018 onward.
It is clear that the IMF believes that bailout goals can only be achieved through new reforms worth 1.5 billion euros for 2017 and at 3.5 billion euros per annum from 2018 onward.
The IMF believes that Greek debt will be higher than the European Commission’s projections. Specifically, it estimates that debt will be at 183.4 percent of the GDP for this year (182.9 percent, according to the European Commission), and in 2017 it will increase to 184.7 percent of the GDP and 172.4 percent in 2018. From 2019, debt will start to drop, whereas in 2021 it will be at 169.2 percent.
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