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Entrapment of Cyprus – Vanishing Cyprus

un_cyprusUnder the current political climate, there is a slim possibility that a conciliatory agreement to resolve the Cyprus issue may not be far off. If successful, the island will be administered under a Bi-Zonal, Bi-Communal Federation. The new president of the Republic Mr. Anastasiades, a devout Europhile seems quite receptive to signing a compromise deal; just like he did with the EU IMF-Troika agreement, which introduced the “Bail-In” economic calamity on the island.
Irrespective of what may transpire out of the talks, it is most certainly that Turkey will not abandon its trophy entirely. As for the 400,000 Anatolian settlers and 40,000 Turkish troops imported to alter the demographic character of the island, their repatriation is doubtful, and so is the return of the 200,000 Greek Cypriot refugees back to their ancestral homes. With the exception of the probable conditional return of Famagusta, the rest of the refugees will be used as sacrificial lambs by the government who will re-introduce a revised UN Annan Plan, a plan rejected by 76% of the electorate!
Historically, Turkey always felt duped for losing the island to the British Empire in 1914 and has never stopped planning its reoccupation. It is said that: “it will never leave its underbelly unprotected ever again.” On the other hand, Mr. Eroglu the Turkish Cypriot leader and Ankara’s envoy, in his own words announced that: “the sun rises every day in Cyprus over two peoples, two cultures, two religions and two sovereign states with certain borders and there could be no return to the pre-1974 period.” Turkey’s foreign minister on the other hand warned that, this is the “last chance” for Cyprus to settle the dispute or face a new Turkish Cypriot state under the protectorate of Turkey…a warning Cypriot politicians failed to take seriously.
Oblivious to political condemnations of its military occupation of part of the island, Turkey’s “wait and see” policy paid off handsomely: “Prolong a problem long enough; admit nothing; do nothing; and in time it becomes not a problem!” Demographic changes will transmute events and take care of new realities. Memory has a habit of forgetting.
Without a doubt the proposed talks – with or without a BBF agreement – will influence the final carve-up of the island. The Anastasiades government could not have picked a worse time to start the talks, especially now that the country is in economic ruins. Negotiating under stress and weakness is a very bad start.
Indicators show that the discovery of Natural Gas deposits within Cyprus’s Sea Protection Zone has altered the entire geopolitical scene. There is a diplomatic or even cunning “battle” in progress to secure a major gas route through Turkey and Syria destined for the energy-hungry European markets. In fact, the power struggle in Syria is not a coincidence, but is a calculated strategic move for control; one that involves oil and gas routes. The EU desperately wants to reduce its reliance on Russian energy flow and EU Cyprus — like manna from heaven– now offers a secure alternative and has become the ultimate trophy.
The Cyprus government however, has put its hopes in salvaging the ghost city of Famagusta as part of the overall agreement based on BBF. If successful, it will inevitably allow the people to decide the fate of the island in a Referendum. That however raises additional questions: Will the 550,000 Greek/Turkish Cypriots of the Diaspora get the chance to cast a vote on the proposed Referendum? Or will they be treated as absentee victims of circumstances? Also, will the 160,000 foreign nationals and citizens of the Republic be permitted to register and vote? In a democracy, voting rights of permanent citizens cannot be forsaken for political expediency!
Nonetheless, the political situation has now taken a brand new perspective: Turkey, has unilaterally decided to put into action its plan to form a new Turkish Cypriot state and will do so with the full blessing of the EU in a landmark decision by the European Court of Human Rights. In accordance with the provisions of law No 67/2005 this could pave the way for a de facto solution to the Cyprus problem. The ECHR upheld that Turkey’s Immovable Property Commission TRNC (IPC) “was an accessible and effective remedy for the complex matters of property ownership, valuation and assessing financial compensation.”
That EU decision has given the IPC North Cyprus its seal of approval, which officially began its activities on 17th March 2006. That precedent has opened up Pandora’s box; nobody knows what will pop out from inside that dark box.
The plan is a conniving one: Turkey has set out to purchase as much land and properties in the occupied area — predominately in Famagusta, Kerynia, Karpass and other prime areas — owned by Greek Cypriot Refugees. The objective is to accumulate and create a Land Bank complete with clear titles and so increase its majority share of land ownership by Turkish Cypriots or more correctly by Turkey, which finances the program. Once they have accumulated enough land ownership, they can then apply to the UN and international courts for statehood, which cannot be refused given its ECHR ruling. The criteria to establish a state are: language; population; land ownership; religion; culture and people’s overwhelming desire to form a statehood. With the demographic transformation in the occupied area, those requirements will easily be met.
The campaign to purchase land from the refugees, is the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle before the TRNC is officially recognized and under the very noses of the government, which so miserably failed to prevent it! In panic it has now set out to dissuade refugees from selling their land to the IPC Commission. Yet it offers no financial assistance or any compensation to help their economic plight in exchange for their occupied properties. Opening the crossings at the dividing line has proven to be a grave political mistake. It now offers the refugees an easy access to the IPC Commission and still, no provisions are being considered to stop the flow by closing the crossings until a solution is signed.
When people make contact with the IPC North Cyprus they soon discover that, void of the hype, paid compensation normally amounts to an average 8-10% of the current market property value. That is a steal, but desperate people make desperate decisions; a property worth one million Euros is handed over for less than 100,000 Euros! According to Halkin Sesi newspaper, Mr Gungor Gunkan, chairman of the IPC confessed that the Commission has so far paid out 138 million pounds sterling.
Under the present economic crisis, refugees often find themselves without a choice and sell their lands to survive. In fact, of the great number of the original owners after 39 years, many have passed away and it’s their inheritors who are now applying for compensation. Many don’t even know where the land is located and all they want is to take their money and run.
Not so long ago, the numbers of applications to the IPC were trivial but this year they have skyrocketed. According to Mr. Gungor Gunkan over 5400 submissions have been launched with the Commission. If the economic austerity continues indefinitely, those applications will quadruple and effectively help Turkey establish a new Turkish Cypriot state; negotiations or not, the fate of Cyprus is caught in a Turkish mousetrap and nibbled away.
Could there be a sinister scheme to actually destroy the Republic of Cyprus as one unitary country and if so why? Under the present political situation, Cyprus finds itself in a dilemma: If a BBF is adopted, the island inevitably will be carved up into two component states and Greek Cypriots will eventually become an ethnic minority overwhelmed by a Muslim population. If on the other hand, an agreement collapses, then Turkey will put in action its threat and legalize its annexation; a no-win dilemma, indeed.
Can Cyprus escape its predicament? There are always alternatives but they demand bold decisions followed by bold actions. Getting out of the EU and the Euro may well be one alternative. This will offer Cyprus the freedom to make bold decisions — financial and political — without requesting permission from the EU institution. The other, Cyprus should block Turkey’s entry into the EU until it changes its intransigent position. Equally, the government should take immediate steps to correct its failed foreign policy and begin to formulate long-term policies for the good of the country since the present ones failed miserably.
Realistically, the demographic character of Cyprus has gradually been transformed into a multi-cultural EU member-state. This new society demands a system similar to all other western democracies that provide: one citizenship, one-man-one-vote, the rule of law, justice and equality; that is the only way Cypriots can survive, prosper and live in peace. All other solutions carry great dangers and could erupt into a prolonged suffering for years to come. Cypriots had enough!

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