In an economic research note of January 28, the American investment bank J.P. Morgan sees a significant chance (70%) of elections in Greece before the end of the 1st trimester of 2015. Its basic case is that the elections would be held during the 3rd trimester or the early 4th in 2014.
“Greece could enter an extended campaign period, shifting political focus away from the Memorandum,” the report stated. It also adds that according to current polls SYRIZA has a 7 percent lead in the “Athens B” constituency and would be the likely winner of the elections, even if it is not certain that it would manage to form a new government.
Analysts believe that if SYRIZA wins it may adopt a tough stance towards troika negotiations regarding further structural reforms or more fiscal discipline for Greece. Moreover SYRIZA’s declarations could cause great concern among international observers in 2014 and a SYRIZA government could be a real challenge for the rest of the Eurozone members.
J.P. Morgan also considers that none of the Greek parties would be able to form a government alone so a new coalition between SYRIZA and New Democracy should be considered.
In conclusion, analysts believe that Greek elections would have a significant impact on the entire Eurozone. If SYRIZA wins and forms a government, both right and left-wing anti-systemic parties will be boosted. Conversely if New Democracy wins, the impression that Eurozone periphery countries are able to implement the required reforms and manage their political consequences will be reinforced.