J.P. Morgan: Elections in 2014 and SYRIZA’s Win



Tsipras-JP MorganIn an economic research note of January 28, the American investment bank J.P. Morgan sees a significant chance (70%) of elections in Greece before the end of the 1st trimester of 2015. Its basic case is that the elections would be held during the 3rd trimester or the early 4th in 2014.

“Greece could enter an extended campaign period, shifting political focus away from the Memorandum,” the report stated. It also adds that according to current polls SYRIZA has a 7 percent lead in the “Athens B” constituency and would be the likely winner of the elections, even if it is not certain that it would manage to form a new government.

Analysts believe that if SYRIZA wins it may adopt a tough stance towards troika negotiations regarding further structural reforms or more fiscal discipline for Greece. Moreover SYRIZA’s declarations could cause great concern among international observers in 2014 and a SYRIZA government could be a real challenge for the rest of the Eurozone members.

J.P. Morgan also considers that none of the Greek parties would be able to form a government alone so a new coalition between SYRIZA and New Democracy should be considered.

In conclusion, analysts believe that Greek elections would have a significant impact on the entire Eurozone. If SYRIZA wins and forms a government, both right and left-wing anti-systemic parties will be boosted. Conversely if New Democracy wins, the impression that Eurozone periphery countries are able to implement the required reforms and manage their political consequences will be reinforced.

 


10 COMMENTS

  1. Hopefully ND do win. They alternatives of disillusioned whiners that don’t say whom they support, fascists, and communists is far far worse option for our homeland.

    Take for example Syriza. Their great communist leader Tsipiras couldn’t care less if Greece was called Western Turkey. Communist want us to be part of a new state/identity.. the Union of Socialist European Republic (USER). Anyone that opposes them they call “racist” and :”fascists”. Syriza is a party that is not only treasonous but is downright antihellenic to the point of engaging in a subtle form of ethnic cleansing.

    Come next election we will find out who put their political affiliation ahead of Hellenism.

  2. JP Morgan has obviously proven they have absolutely no understanding of the composition or profile of Greece’s politics. It may be wishful thinking, but after the highly questionable jailing of GDs MPs, and the illegal seizure of party funding without a conviction, ND has about as much a chance of forging a coalition with GD as KKE. Dream on money boyz.

  3. Just more PROOF the Eurozone project is “failing miserably” and the IMF, Troika and EU Commission and Bankers y are frightened to death about losing control over robbing all EU Med-countries assets that current Gov’t Traitors all selling off for next to nothing bargain prices.
    The EU was a FRAUD to start & Looting of Greece and Cyprus will soon STOP!

  4. HAHAHAHA It’s over for the New Democracy – PASOK coalition regime, and even the media knows it. Athens Mayor Kaminis appeared on the channel MEGA and the Independent MP Aννα Βαγενά told him to his face that she is afraid that Golden Dawn MP Ilias Kasidiaris will be elected in May to be the next Mayor of Athens, and that there is no candidate from any party that can gather adequate support to beat Kasidiaris. Meanwhile Mayor Kaminis nodded meekly.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LkFO8E6T84

  5. New Democracy and PASOK are both politically dead parties that scarcely merit mentioning in a backpage newspaper article. There only two significant political forces in Greece today, SYRIZA and Golden Dawn.

  6. Dear Author,

    I tried unsuccesfully to find on the web the original note of JP Morgan.

    Could anyone post here the link?

    Thanks

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