An analysis of Greek debt sustainability by economists Darvas, Sapir and Wolff depicts precisely to whom Greece has to repay its debts.
According to official data by the European Union statistical office (EUROSTAT) and the Bank of Greece (BoG), Greece is among the three “weakest” countries in the European Union. The other two countries are Portugal and Ireland. All three countries remain vulnerable and show a negative growth pattern, a negative primary balance of payments and falling interest rates.
One third of the Greek debt is directly linked to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) loans (for the second adjustment program) and are estimated at around 35 billion euros from the total 319-billion-euro debt.
Moreover, Greece has to repay 53 billion euros in bilateral loans from the European Union and 38 billion euros from European Central Bank (ECB) and National Central Banks loans.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) predictions issued in April, a nominal increase in Greece’s GDP is expected from this year until the end of 2019.
From 2020 onwards, the prediction for the whole of Eurozone is an annual increase of 3.1%, especially until 2026. As far as Greece, Ireland and Portugal are concerned, there is no sufficient data to make an accurate prediction, but the IMF predicts that in the year 2018, Greece, Ireland and Portugal will have gradually reached 3.7% of their respective GDP levels.
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