The awaited agreement on the Greek debt is very unlikely to be signed today, as both sides remain rigid in their demands. However, this lack of flexibility doesn’t mean that Greece will collide head on with its European partners or that they will kick the country out of the euro zone.
The most likely outcome in today’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels is that there will be an agreement on an interim program, a deal that will appeal to both sides; mostly so that neither will lose face.
Both sides are digging in their heels a few hours before the Eurogroup session. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble threw a verbal grenade this morning saying that he feels sorry for Greek people who have such an irresponsible government. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras though has almost 8 out of 10 Greeks on his side on the negotiations issue. In yesterday’s demonstration rally in support of the Greek government, Mr. Schaeuble was ridiculed in placards. Tit for tat.
European Union officials who will take part in today’s critical meeting have been calculating the cost of all possible proposals. Greece will most likely get a big chunk of what they want, but it will be at a cost. What is needed is many points of convergence between the two sides.
In the past few weeks, European finance officials shout left and right that Greece’s exit from the euro zone is not a risk for the common currency bloc. This is a king-size bluff, of course. The euro zone will bruise if Greece is forced out. And at this fragile moment, even the slightest of bruises in the already falling currency will cause damages.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis knows that and acts accordingly. His verbal pyrotechnics and his repeated mantra that Greece belongs in the euro zone has a purpose. Greece will go bankrupt if kicked out of the euro zone, and dragging the rest of Europe into trouble is no consolation.
The more leftist side of SYRIZA doesn’t seem to care about a Grexit. Probably some members of the cabinet will be happy if that happens. They could wallow in their communist fantasies undisturbed. Hence the last-minute call on Varoufakis on Wednesday night’s Eurogroup telling him not to agree on certain issues.
Back to reality though, an intermediate bailout program after the expiry of the current one on February 28 is a good scenario. And a likely one. A grand compromise that will satisfy both, for a little while. European officials can tell their voters that they gave Greece a few months to breathe so they can get their reforms in order. The leftist Greek government can tell constituents that they got rid of the loathsome memorandum and the hated troika and fulfilled their biggest pre-election promise. Greece asks for a six-month bridge program. We may not get six, but we’ll get some.
Mr. Tsipras told Germany’s Stern magazine that in six months there will be a new Greece. Let’s hope then that the new prime minister will get six months’ leeway to introduce the much-advertized reforms he has promised Greek voters.
See all the latest news from Greece and the world at Greekreporter.com. Contact our newsroom to report an update or send your story, photos and videos. Follow GR on Google News and subscribe here to our daily email!
