The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Greece’s exit from the Eurozone would be “manageable,” although in such a case several measures would have to be put in place in order to ensure the protection of “vulnerable countries,” such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland, noted German newspaper Deutsche Welle.
On the other hand, the consequences for Greece would be dire, noted the IMF experts, according to Spiegel. The German magazine referred to a confidential non paper released in March by the IMF entitled “Greece after leaving the euro.”
The non paper authors allegedly refuse that devaluation of Greece’s future currency could improve the competitiveness of the Greek economy. Furthermore, they estimate that the new currency would enter into a circle of devaluations. “Consumers, businesses and investors would try to get rid of the new currency because they would fear that it will lose its value, and thus they would accelerate its devaluation.” Moreover, the lower value of the new currency would cause a dramatic increase in the prices of imported products and that would lead to hyperinflation.
“If Tsipras’ government fails to obtain the necessary money [to pay the IMF installments], it will lead the country to disorderly bankruptcy. The EFSF, the country’s largest creditor, would be forced to immediately request the payments of its own loans, totaling 130 billion euros. Consequently, the Greek government will no longer find buyers for either short-term bonds, the so-called T-Bills, which are its only current means of survival,” wrote Spiegel.
Spiegel also suggested that while the private sector and the free market would continue to operate with euros, the state would have to make payments with the parallel currency, which would have the same nominal value as the euro at first, but later its price would drop below its nominal value.
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