New measures worth 2-2.5 billion euros is the solution that the International Monetary Fund and European creditors are likely to agree on after the evaluation of Greece’s bailout program.
At the moment, the difference between the IMF and the European Stability Mechanism, European Central Bank and European Commission in calculating Greece’s fiscal gap until 2018 is 3 billion euros. The difference is not likely to be bridged before the evaluation.
Therefore the solution Europe is suggesting is that the IMF participates in the program only as technical advisor until the evaluation. Greece and European creditors will agree on the measures and the IMF cannot raise any demands until the evaluation.
After the evaluation is completed with positive results, the ECB, ESM and EC can disperse the next tranche of Greece’s bailout loan amounting to 5.7 billion euros.
At that stage the IMF will be active again to agree with Greece on the additional measures needed to reach the primary surplus targets that Athens agreed on in July 2015.
Given that the evaluation completion requires that Athens legislates pension and tax reforms, additional fiscal measures must be taken amounting to 2-2.5 billion euros for the 2016-2018 period, mainly from spending cuts.